Ten Days Out, His War Chest Is Already Aimed at October

Wall of Shame — Today: Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama

Today on the Wall of Shame: the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama PAC (Montgomery) has put $5,000 into Rep. Shomari Figures' campaign account. Alabama’s dominant health insurer, writing checks to the congressman who represents the patients and hospitals it covers. The Wall of Shame exists for one reason — so that total stops growing. https://take2back.com/wall-of-shame.html

TEN DAYS

Ten days. That is what stands between now and the August 11 Republican primary in Alabama's 2nd District.

Here is the quiet on the other side. Shomari Figures closed the last reporting period with $662,600 in the bank. He raised money and he spent money, and when the dust settled he was sitting on nearly two-thirds of a million dollars. He did not spend it fighting for a nomination, because he does not have to fight for one. No Democrat qualified against him.

Meanwhile, six Republicans are spending against each other to earn the right to face him. That is the picture ten days out: one side resting, one side working.

WHAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO PRETEND

We are not going to tell you that any of this is a scandal. It is not.

Having no primary opponent is not corruption. It is a fact of the calendar. Incumbents raise money — all of them do, in both parties, and Figures raising his is exactly what you would expect any officeholder to do. There is nothing crooked about a bank balance.

So we are not going to dress this up as something dirty. We are going to tell you what it actually is, which is worse for us than a scandal would be. It is preparation.

THAT MONEY IS FOR OCTOBER, NOT AUGUST

That $662,600 is not going to be spent in the next ten days. It is not for August. It is for October.

It is money held for the November general election — for television in the Montgomery and Dothan markets, for mail, for the field program that turns out his voters when this is finally one race between one Democrat and one Republican. Every dollar he is not spending now is a dollar he gets to spend then. He is not idle. He is loaded.

THEY ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT AUGUST

And the other side is already thinking about this primary — our primary.

The Alabama Reflector reported on July 30 that a Democratic vice chair urged "strategic voting" in the August election, pointing to recent interview comments from Hampton Harris and to concerns about Republican turnout. That is one party official talking, and we are not going to inflate it into anything more than that.

But read it plainly. The other side is watching the August 11 Republican primary. They are watching how many of us show up. They are thinking about our turnout before we are. When they are already talking about your election, the answer is not to be quiet. The answer is to show up.

WASHINGTON ALREADY DECIDED THIS SEAT IS WORTH IT

You do not have to guess whether this seat matters nationally. The money already told you.

Outside groups have now reported well over $950,000 in this district. On the Republican side the ratio is better than eight to one — Republicans spending against Republicans in a contested primary. On the Democratic side, the Rolling Sea Action Fund has put in a single $100,000 expenditure supporting Figures. The national Democratic campaign committee has this seat on its target list.

Trump carried these lines by fourteen points. This district is rated likely Republican, and it is a Democratic flip target at the same time. Both things are true. A seat that is winnable is not a seat that is won.

HIS RECORD IS FINISHED

There is one more thing that changed, quietly, and it is worth marking.

Figures's voting record for this Congress is finished. The House is in a district work period. The last recorded vote posted by the House Clerk is Roll Call 283, taken July 23. He will cast no further votes before this primary. Whatever he was going to be on paper, he already is.

That record is complete, and it is documented — every vote, in the archive at take2back.com. It is not going to change between now and August 11. It is there to read.

TEN DAYS, AND WHAT TO DO

So here is where the calendar leaves us.

Voter registration closed Monday. If you want to vote absentee, your application must be RECEIVED in your county Absentee Election Manager's office by Tuesday, August 4 — received, not postmarked. To hand-deliver an absentee ballot, the deadline is Thursday, August 6.

Turnout across the thirteen counties is expected to come in under 30,000. There is no runoff. Whoever finishes first is the nominee. And on August 12 this stops being six races and becomes one — with the Democratic money holding a three-month head start.

Ten days. Under 30,000 votes. No second chances.

Show up on the eleventh.